Artificial Narrow Intelligence(ANI or AI) is at the forefront of technological advances today. AI is an area of computer technology that uses techniques like those of the human brain to carry out task that in the past has required human intelligence. Some notable successes in AI include autonomous vehicles, biomedicine, speech and image recognition, natural language translation and games such as chess and Go. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), unlike traditional AI systems which are designed to operate in a single area, AGI is designed for generalized activities and is expected to rapidly surpass humans in almost every area where it is applied. Some have warned of a time when humans may become subordinated to AGI overlords.
An example is the rapid development of AI in computer chess. In May 1997 a match was held between Deep Blue, an IBM computer and then world champion Garry Kasparov. Deep Blue won the match 3 ½ games to 2 ½ for Kasparov. This was the first time a computer program defeated a world champion playing chess under tournament regulations. Twenty years later, in 2017 Alpha Zero an algorithm developed by Google’s Deep Mind became the global chess champion by beating the best computer chess engine named Stockfish 8, which could easily vanquish the world human chess champion.
Alpha Zero won 28 of 100 games (72 ties) without a single loss. This result is made even more remarkable in that Alpha Zero was given only the rules of the game, and taught itself to play chess in only 4 hours, using a system of trial and error, coupled with reward (and punishment) to train itself, without any human input (thus the name Alpha Zero). Among humans it is said about learning chess, “you can learn to play chess in an hour, but it will take you a lifetime to play well”. Not so for Alpha Zero!
To understand how AI learning takes place, this simple matchbox tic-tac-toegame is instructive. Here learning is encoded in the number of different color beads in each matchbox and their probability of being selected. AI systems has its intelligence encoded in neural networks that ‘learns’ based on training. Biased training data will lead to any decisions made being biased. Because AI technology will be applied to almost every areas of human endeavor, what they are taught is extremely important. This Wall Street Journal article provides insight into how AI decisions can be either deliberately or inadvertently biased.
A closely related discipline to Artificial Intelligence with programs being offered by some of the country’s great universities. An excellent list of universities and schools offering degrees can be found at Data Science Programs. Data Science is an interdisciplinary field that extracts knowledge for large sets of data and presents that knowledge in a comprehensible manner to consumers. This is often used to train AI systems so they can make predictions about the real world based on data collected from actual events.
The voluminous amounts of data being collected by information systems have made manual analysis and understanding impossible. This data must be cleaned, organized and analyzed using statistical techniques suitable for machine learning. Data analysis is a process of inspecting, cleansing, transforming and modelling data whit the goal of unearthing information that is capable of supporting decision making and informing conclusions.
An excellent example of Data Science in use is with the work done by Dr. Yiuyang Gu in predicting the behavior of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the ongoing pandemic. Another application of Dr. Gu’s data science work can be found at YoloStocks which uses the technology to modeling Stock Market behavior.
Students expecting to prepare to work in this dynamic field, now and in the future must not only have an understanding of Information technology but of math and statistics.
Biotechnology uses living organisms to engineer products for use by society. It is one of the most exciting area of study and one where advances are taking place daily. New drugs and procedures are being developed not only in human biology but in that or all living systems. Careers in Biotech will be extremely rewarding as new advances and discoveries are made. As with any new technology, biotech carries with it a certain amount of risks. This is due to its use of living organisms which once developed struggle to stay alive and reproduce like all living organisms.
This technology does not exist in isolation and will work in combination with others such as computer and nanotechnology to create new types of devices and systems. The applications of Biotechnology is expanding as new discoveries are made. Gene splicing can be used to modify the DNA of bacteria, making them capable of creating useful drugs such as insulin. This technology can be used to transfer a useful trait found in one organism to another.
A new gene editing technique called Clustered Regularly Interspaced Palindromic Repeats (CRSPR-Cas9) allows the genome of organisms to be edited using a technique found in bacteria which allow their defenses to fight off viruses.
Communications technologies have vastly reduced the cost of communicating globally. Inexpensive communications are now possible between humans or devices from almost anywhere on the planet. Wireline, terrestrial wireless and satellite communications have advanced rapidly and have made low cost communications ubiquitous.
The Internet has its origin with the Department of Defense’s Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) back in the 1970. The Internet evolved form a research project called Arpanet whose mission was to provide reliable communications despite faulty circuits and switches over any communications media and at data rates from a few bits per second to multiple gigabits per second.
Two seminal protocols, Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and Internet Protocol (IP); TCP/IP underly the Internet. Vinton Cerf is sometimes called the father of the Internet, he and Robert Kahn jointly developed TCP/IP. TCP/IP are used to reliably interconnect and control the flow of data globally over a variety of different kinds of networks that make up the Internet.
TCP/IP supports a robust layered network architecture based on packet switchingtechnology. Packet switching is capable of transmitting almost every type of data (real time data excepted) over a variety of media and a wide range of bandwidths or data rates. Circuit switching, the technology of the public switched telephone network (PSTN), was originally designed for voice telephone calls. Now that packet switching has advanced so rapidly voice no longer needs to be carried over preestablished circuits and is now transmitted as voice over IP (VoIP).Today industry pursues not only everything over IP, but IP over everything.
The most widely known of these upper layer protocols is the World Wide Web (WWW) or web, developed by Tim Berners-Lee. The web is based on Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP), and Hypertext Markup Language (HTML)and make use of lower layers including TCP/IP. The protocols allowed development of browsers such as Netscape and made the network much more usable. Prior to the web accessing information over the Internet was difficult and its use restricted to mostly students and specialist within industry.
Today the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly developing. The IoT will put in place the infrastructure required to allow smart devices to communicate over the Internet and exchange data. Home appliances, these microsensors, automobiles and embedded computers will not only send and receive information but can be remotely addressed and controlled. The ubiquitous nature of these devices will have implications for security and privacy. Some of the same security issues experienced the Internet will be present with the IoT
Digital computers are the foundation for most of today’s computer systems, but prior to the digital age Analog computers were widely used. Both analog and digital computers are electronic, and both have benefited from developments in microelectronic.
Over the last seventy years the speed and capacity of Information Technology (IT) systems have increased almost exponentially as the underlying hardware components, Central Processing Unit (CPU), Random Access Memory (RAM) and Input-Output (IO) improved. This exponential increase in capacity closely followed Moore’s law which states that the computing capacity that can be purchased for the same amount of money will double every 18 to 24 months. As digital computers reach their limits researchers are now exploring development of quantum computers. Along with this rapid growth of computer technology, a rich ecosystem has grown along with it, and includes a variety of disciplines from software development, to computer hardware and software installation, maintenance to management.
Computer systems have evolved from large centralized mainframes to handheld cell phones, with today’s cellphones having more computing capacity than the systems NASA used to land on the moon in 1969. This evolution started with the large centralized mainframes, evolved to time sharing which was a predecessor to today’s cloud computing, to minicomputers, desktops and handhelds. In addition to traditional computers embedded computers and microcontrollers are also widely deployed and may outnumber them three or four to one.
Although computer hardware has advances exponentially, advances in software have come at a much slower pace. New languages have been developed to make it easier to write code for computers and to make the process less error prone and easier to debug.
Development in AI will change the way some software is developed and will likely reduce the need for coders over the next 30 years. Some procedures are much too complex to automate and code using traditional software development techniques that require clear specification of what the software must (and must not) do, a design then, coding, debugging and deployment. Training AI to perform tasks such as face recognition can be done by feeding neural networks large amounts of data and allowing the algorithm to ‘learn’ how to recognize faces.
The demand for Information Security is increasing as concerns about privacy become more of a concern. It is stated that industry and governments lose billions of dollars each year due to hacking. In addition to the money loss, there is the loss of confidential data and business plans. Internet security is a major challenge and one that will persist despite efforts to address the problem. Because the early internet was not designed with security as a priority, numerous flaws crept into its infrastructure. An updated versions of a key Internet Protocol (IP) called IPv6 is being implemented which will provide enhanced security and increased IP addresses.
As the world is becoming more technologically advanced a wider spectrum of actors will gain access to potentially dangerous capabilities. These capabilities, including biological, genetic, computer and communications technologies will endow even small groups with considerable power. Improved transportation and communications will allow even small groups to collaborate and act together globally.
The combination of mobile telephones with Internet connectivity have proven to be a powerful combination in today’s age with social media applications available. Almost everyone has a cellphone and it has become a universal tool of empowerment. Cellphone availability and capabilities will continue to increase becoming ubiquitous in the future. Coupled with low cost wireless Internet connectivity, there is no limit to what these systems can be used to accomplish. These tools have the capacity to enable both large and small groups to organize and coordinate on short notice and even use encryption to conceal their communications. Coupled with social media applications these groups can be effectively marshaled for mass action. The use of social media for mass organization was first demonstrated during the 2011 Arab Spring revolution in Egypt.
Using the Internet terrorist groups and failed states alike will be able to wage cyber warfare with deniability, access knowledge about the latest chemical, biological and nuclear technologies and collaborate in their use. Some government such as China and Russia are building their own Internet infrastructure and placing firewalls between themselves and the global Internet infrastructure.
Nanotechnology implements extremely small systems with tolerance on the nanometer scale. To provide some idea of how small a nanometer is, the thickness of a typical newspaper is about 100,000 nanometers. This technology allows substances to be developed by manipulating materials at the atomic level. Micro Electro-mechanical Systems (MEMS) are currently used in a variety of sensor and display technologies and are widely used in cell phones.
Energy demand are steadily increasing and the ability to meet them using hydrocarbon (fossil) fuels are limited due to their effect on the atmosphere. This is necessitating a change to renewable energy sources which must be a substantial part of future energy sources. Renewable and sustainable energy sources will be essential for continued growth and prosperity for the foreseeable future. For the next 30 years, alternative energy sources such as solar and wind will be in great demand as the world is weaned from fossil fuels.
Photovoltaics convert sunlight into electricity and is a key technology in solar power industry. They collect sunlight in a distributed manner using residential rooftop installations and their use is growing rapidly. With reductions in the cost of this technology and government subsidies, this is likely to become even more of a growth industry in coming years. Utility scale solar is also being vigorously pursued. All kinds of solar power generation and electrical storage systems will be areas of intense demand as the world weans itself from fossil fuels. Solar and wind are two of the three renewable energy sources currently being used to address our energy needs, the third being hydroelectric. Wind energy can be considered another form of solar energy as the atmosphere is powered by the sun. Installation and maintenance of wind turbines on land and offshore is a growing multi-billion-dollar industry and will require significant numbers of trained individuals.
Because of the variable nature of solar and wind, battery technology must be used to smooth delivery and meet demand when these sources are not available. Advanced electric energy storage technology is being aggressively sought-after by both governments and commercial labs around the globe. Another energy storage technology called ultracapacitors or supercapacitors is also being vigorously pursued. Unlike batteries which depend on electro chemical reactions to store and release energy, ultracapacitors are fully electronic. They are designed to quickly storing and release large amounts of electric energy and can be rapidly charged and discharged an unlimited number of times without significant degradation. Batteries and supercapacitors are typically used together but as these technologies advance, they may become competitors.
Another component of the energy problem is safe and reliable transmission and distribution of electricity. The transmission and distribution networks are being upgraded using Smart Grid concepts. The smart grid will provide greater control over the electrical networks and improve their operation with variable power sources such as solar and wind.
Nuclear fission will continue to play a role in addressing the world’s energy needs, but due to it high initial cost and safety concerns its role is likely to be minimized. Safe `could potentially be used to construct a dirty bomb is still an unsolved problem. Accidents leading to meltdowns at nuclear power plants in Chernobyl in Ukraine (1968), Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania (1979) and in Fukushima Daiichi, Japan has alerted the public to its possible hazards. Although dangerous, atomic power plants will be with us for the foreseeable future and is an area with more than its share of challenges.
Nuclear fusion, a cleaner and safer process for generating electrical power is being worked on by governments throughout the world. Fusion is the process that powers the sun. Next to solar power, nuclear fusion is the holy grail of power generation. This technology may still be decades away from achieving breakeven, the point where the process generates as much power output as the power input required to contain, ignite and control it.
Outer Space is truly the next frontier, and humans moving into outer space and onto another planet is one of the more exciting things likely to occur over the next 30 years. Space travel, which is now being advanced by commercial interest, was formerly the domain of governments and large agencies such as The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The development of reusable launch vehicles is reducing the cost to orbit and allowing even poor countries to place payloads into orbit.
Since 2011 when the Shuttle or Space Transport System was canceled, NASA has depended on Russian launch vehicles. NASA has contracted out the next generation of launch vehicles to private industry. Two companies, SpaceX and a consortium called United Launch Alliance (ULA), provide launch services to the government. ULA is a joint venture between Lockheed Martin Space Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security. Both these organizations have contracts to fly both human and supply missions to the International Space Station (ISS). SpaceX and ULA both make scheduled supply launches to the ISS but neither have qualified their spacecraft for human launch services as of mid-2019. Human launch services were scheduled to begin for SpaceX around mid-2019, with Crew Dragon capsule, but after some setbacks during testing, it is now projected that the SpaceX Crew Dragon will launch in late 2019 or early 2020, with ULA projected to launch in 2020 as well.
SpaceX has been particularly innovative in developing their space launch vehicle and has developed their Falcon 9 rockets which can be reused with minimal refurbishing. SpaceX is a privately-owned company headed by Elon Musk, who at times has been controversial, but is one of America’s most innovative entrepreneurs. If you have an interest in outer space, including Mars exploration, mining the asteroid belt or meteorite watch then Musk’s SpaceX is a company you will be interested in following.
Blue Origin is a commercial space venture funded by another great American entrepreneur Jeff Bezos, who is the founder of Amazon.com. Blue Origin recently announced its Club for the Future which lays out a variety of interesting plans for young people who have an interest in space technology. Now is a good time for young people with an interest in space to join the club which is bound to do exciting things in the future. Blue Origin has published plans for establishing a permanent colony on the moon and for establishing what are called O’Neal Colonies in outer space.
Other commercial organizations are developing the capability to launch human passengers into outer space, or on suborbital flights to just beyond what is known as the Karman Line. The Karman Line is an imaginary boundary about 62 miles above sea level that defines where outer space begins and the atmosphere end. Virgin Galactic which is funded by Sir Richard Branson, is one of these and is oriented toward space tourism.
The US Air Force Space Command is a part of the Strategic Air Command and has responsibility for military space operations. A new agency called The United States Space Force was created by President Donald Trump in 2018. This agency will have responsibility for military oerations in outer space.
Legislators throughout the world face a tremendous challenge keeping track of technology and crafting legislation to govern its impact on society. The Offices of Technology Assessment (OTA) within the federal was defunded in 1995 and as a result legislators and policy makers have been forced to rely more on industry in setting direction in Technology PolicyIn some instances, this results in legislators being unable to craft legislation that represents the best interest of the public. Efforts to revive OTA are being considered by the Congress which currently relies on the Agencies and General Accountability Office (GAO) for guidance. Technology policy will be an area of demand and one where highly motivated and well-trained individuals can make a significant contribution.