We are living in the age of the Anthropocene, a time when human have become a significant influence on the Earth's geology and ecosystems, including, its climate and environment. The immense challenges of our times can only be met with solutions that are envisioned by a new generation of thinkers and actors trained in science, technology, engineering and math. Beyond war, violence, and disease, the next 30 years will present other challenges: dramatic climate change, population growth, pollution, artificial intelligence, and energy depletion. Human intellect is the solution to confronting these threats, reversing the devastation and creating opportunities.
In addition to the traditional challenges of war, violence, and disease the next 30 years will encounter a host of new challenges unlike those faced by their parents or ancestors. These will include climate change, population growth, pollution, artificial intelligence, and energy. Each of these areas will demand substantial human intellect and will provide individuals who are well prepared numerous opportunities to contribute fully and take advantage of these opportunities. Population migration due to climate change is already problem and is a contributing factor to war and unrest in the middle east and Africa. With global communications, an awareness of a better quality of life will be present among almost everyone raising their expectations and life aspirations. This will occur at a time when the livable surface of our planet is shrinking.
This New Yorker article provides insight into ways climate change will affect the planet, and reduce the usable land and water resources. This Groundswell report by the World Bank discusses population migration due to climate change in three critical regions. Both the developed and developing world will face these challenges and poor people the world over will be on the front line and face the harshest consequences.
Global population is expected to increase from about 7.5 Billion (B) today (2018) to almost 9.8 billion by 2050 and to exceed 11 B by the end of the century. Population growth, due to increased birth rates and life expectancy, will demand greater food, housing, health care and education resources. This will place increased demands on these resources. There will be significant demand for workers as the population in the developed world ages. According to Census Bureau projections, the United States population will age over the coming decades with 26 percentage of the United States population being over age 65 by the year 2050. Between 2014 and 2060, the percentage of total US population under age 18 is expected to decrease from 23 percent to 20 percent and the working-age population to decrease from 62 percent to 57.
Medical technology is said to be advancing at a rate that will increase life expectancy about 3 years every decade. This means that within 30 years, life expectancy is likely to increase by 9 years. Globally life expectancy is about 71 years, but in 30 years it will have increased to about age 80. People are expected no only to live longer but to be healthy; possibly 80 will become the new 60. Statisticians at the Bureau of Labor Statistics project that the labor force through the year 2050 will decrease to about 58.5% from today’s level.
By midcentury if medical advances continue at their current rate, and according to the law of accelerating return, they will increase exponentially, the life expectancy in developed countries for those with wealth could be nearing 100 years. So even though 26 percent of the US population will be over 65, the wealthy among them will enjoy excellent health and still have a healthy and active life. They will also likely be retired, and unless the retirement age is raised not working.
Fertility rates in developing countries are still relatively high and with a young population, this will mean a higher birth rate. Countering this trend is education, development and urbanization, which all tend to lower the number of children the average woman wants to have. This may mean that instead of a projected global population of 11 Billion (B) by the year 2100, the world’s population may start to level off at a bit over 9 B.
Medicine and medical technology, including genetic engineering, and immune-technology are among the most fascinating areas of scientific study today. These areas are on the forefront of research today and provide fascinating opportunities for students planning their careers.
The revolution in communications and travel, will cause greater awareness of other, more appealing lifestyles and opportunities in other more developed countries. Unless development and opportunities become more accessible in developing countries, economic and lifestyle migration will become an even greater force for developed countries to deal with. Life aspirations and expectations among all people will be raised. This will occur at a time when the livable surface of our planet will be shrinking. Both the developed and developing world will face these challenges and poor people the world over will face the harshest consequences.
Pollution is a threat to the biosphere which sustains all life on the planet. From ocean swirls in the Pacific Ocean to massive landfills a variety of waste is being placed in the environment. This atlas developed by D-Waste shows the location of various kinds of waste sites around the globe. While there is now greater awareness of the deleterious effects of pollution, it is still occurring, and already polluted areas will need to be cleaned up. Over the next 30 years, there will be significant demand for skilled people to address these problems.
In the US about a third of municipal waste is recycled and the remainder end up in landfills or is incinerated without any energy recovery. In some industrialized countries such as Germany, recycling rates are as high as 66% and is over 45% in the European Union as a whole. This demonstrates that the knowhow and technology is available, and that the US has considerable catching up to do, thus a likely be an area of opportunity and of significant growth.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), whose goal is to protect human health and the environment monitors a number of highly contaminated sites. These sites are typically located in low income communities and in rural areas. They require remediation and continuous monitoring to ensure that contaminants do not seep into the water table or adversely affect surrounding populations. Note that as discussed in the section on Global Climate Change, the water table will be rising and areas where contaminants have been stored may become flooded and the contaminants will seep into underground reservoirs and streams.
Industry has focused on producing new materials, and recycling has not been as much as an emphasis. This trend must be reversed as competition for limited remaining resources intensifies. Plastics are particularly problematic because they are not biodegradable, lasting in the environment on average about 500 years. There have been advances in recent years in designing plastics that break down more readily in the environment without leaving toxic byproducts. Preventing these items form entering the waste stream is an initial challenge and removing, recovering and recycling the millions of tons that already contaminate the environment must become a priority.
Renewable energy and sustainable sources will be essential for continued growth and prosperity. At the forefront of alternative energy is solar and wind. Given the concerns about climate change, continued widespread use of fossil fuels will become politically unacceptable.
Solar power uses sunlight to generate electricity. It is collected in a distributed manner with residential rooftop installations being a widely used. Utility scale solar is also being vigorously pursued. All aspects of solar power generation and storage will be areas of great demand over the next 50 years as the world weans itself from fossil fuels.
These are two of the three premier renewable energy sources currently being used to address our energy needs, the third being hydroelectric. Wind energy can be considered another form of solar energy as the atmosphere is powered by the sun. Installation and maintenance of wind turbines on land and offshore is a growing multi-billion-dollar industry and will require significant numbers of trained individuals.
Because of the variable nature of solar and wind, energy storage Batteries must be used to smooth delivery and meet demand when these are not available. Advanced electric energy storage is one of the most aggressively sought-after developments in both government and commercial labs.
A significant component of the energy problem is safe and reliable transmission. The transmission and distribution networks are being upgraded using Smart Grid concepts.
Atomic power in the nature of Nuclear fission will continue to play a role in addressing the world’s energy needs, but due to it high initial cost and safety concerns its role is likely to be minimized. Safe disposal of nuclear waste is a critical missing piece. Accidents leading to meltdowns at nuclear power plants in Chernobyl in Ukraine (1968), Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania (1979) and in Fukushima, Japan has alerted the public to its possible hazards. NuScale Power’s next generation small modular nuclear reactors are designed to address the safety and cost issues.
Nuclear fusion, a cleaner and safer process for generating electrical power is being researched by both governments and industry. Fusion is the process that the sun uses. Next to solar power, nuclear fusion is the holy grail of power generation. This technology may still be decades away from achieving breakeven, the point where the process generates more power output than the power input required to contain, ignite and control it.